E=mc2; Berapa Banyak PR 'Menang' di Semenanjung?

 ni aku nak cerita kerusi parlimen sahaja.

I try to be honest to myself..apabila RPK tulis artikel ni hari ini, saya sudah membuat analisa sendiri..http://www.malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/56724-in-the-aftermath-of-may-5th-part-10
"Out of the 89 parliamentary seats that Pakatan Rakyat won, 53 are non-Malay/Muslim seats while only 36 can be said to be Malay/Muslim-majority seats. Umno, however, won 88 seats just by itself (almost the same as for DAP, PKR and PAS combined). Then there were another 12 non-Malay/ Muslim seats with 33 from the native areas in East Malaysia."

 

aku tak pasti samada data RPK diatas tepat ke tidak. mengikut data aku, it should be read like this:

 

"Out of the 89 parliamentary seats that Pakatan Rakyat won, 53 are non-Malay/Muslim (45 semenanjung dan 8 S/S) seats while only 36 can be said to be Malay/Muslim-majority (Semenanjung) seats.

 

Umno, however, won 88 seats just by itself (almost the same as for DAP, PKR and PAS combined). Then there were another 12 non-Malay/ Muslim seats with 33 from the native areas in East Malaysia."

 

data aku mengikut NST 7 Mei, BN/lain-lain menang 86 kerusi di Semenanjung dan 47 kerusi di S/S.

 

Tak kisah lah..beza tak banyak..

 

tapi, yg menarik nya, aku buat analisa awal ptg tadi. tanpa analisa detail lagi..mungkin ketepatan bukan 100%. mungkin 80%..

 

aku dapt figure 40+36+38? total is 114 iaitu majoriti mudah PR..sebab total seat 222..so, 114 (PR) vs 108(BN)..

 

PKR hanya menang 1 kerusi di Serawak.

 

OVERALL

40 - DAP (38)  dan PKR/PAS(2)

36 - PR menang dgn MAJORITI TINGGI#

38 - PR menang MAJORITI TIPIS#

 

Note# - ni tak 'sama' as reported by SPR

 

Di Semenanjung

32 - DAP (31) dan PR lain (1)

36 - PR #

38 - PR tipis #

 

so, di semenanjung (106) +S/S (8) = 114 majoriti mudah..

 

second counting, 106-81 = 25 lost

 

that why rafizi said 27 kerusi akan di petisyen kan..figure aku 25 ke 38..semenanjung sahaja ..(S/S forget it..no lost)

why lost?

next

 

25-38 is a just a good guess 'lost' to BN..

di kawasan majorit melayu (rural area)

36 (PR) vs 37 (UMNO) my good guess..

so I can say
90% tsunami urban
70-80% tsunami semi-urban voter
50% tsunami rural

not bad if is clean election..