Wednesday, 12 March 2014

What The New Ukrainian Revolution Is Really About


When I posted an article last week about the importance of the current Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, I was surprised by how many comments posed the situation in terms of East-West relations, as if the Cold War was still a serious consideration. Then, as the story gained traction in western media, it seemed that many so-called experts saw it the same way.

That’s a gross misunderstanding of the situation. The Cold War is over and has been for quite some time. Ukraine, as well as Russia, is a market economy and has shown little interest in joining NATO or other political alliances.

And that’s why we should all be watching Ukraine, because, while what’s happening there says very little about ideology or the grand chessboard of geopolitics, it says a lot about how technology has transformed the world and how we need to operate in it.

We now live in a new age of disruption in which, as Moisés Naím puts it, “Power is easier to get, but harder to use or keep” and people in positions of authority, whether they be politicians or CEO’s, have far less control than they used to. It is, in fact, complex networks of interests and influence, rather than traditional hierarchies that now determine events.

The Truth About The Russian Resurgence
Almost as soon Vladimir Putin took over, Russia began an impressive economic resurgence. GDP consistently grew in the high single digits, deficits turned to surplus, the central bank began to accumulate massive foreign currency reserves and its credit rating was once again considered investment grade.

Yet even then there were signs that all was not well. Many of the economic gains were a function of rising oil prices—which increased from under $20 in the late 90’s to a high of $140 in 2008—rather than any intrinsic productivity gains. While foreign investment merely trickled in, capital flight soared, as wealthy Russians shipped their money out of the country as fast as they could.When I lived in Moscow in 2003, it was obvious that the country had gotten its confidence back. It was common, especially when speaking in their native language rather than English, for Russian businessmen to talk about dominating Europe economically. Clearly, the country was no longer the basket case it was in the 90’s.

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continue at http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2013/12/08/what-the-new-ukrainian-revolution-is-really-about/